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Gluttony of Hope

Gluttony of Hope

Greedy are sinners. What did the sinners greed after? Money? No. Wealth? No. Happiness? No. Then? Hope, for to hope, is to sin.

Can a person be called sinner simply because he had "hope"? Generally no. Specifically yes. In this case. For those people who hoped beyond what was reasonable. For hoping that their bloodless coup will win more fronts and frontiners. For hoping that world will have endless growth and it cannot fall flat. For being super optimistic. For being super arrogant.

For they still hope to return to their bloodless rout ways, despite where they are now. For hoping against hope that the world will forget and forgive the mess they have created.

Hope that they will be bailed out of the mess they are very much part of, not as unwilling participants, but as the real and true instigators.

Who are they?

The shareholders. The investors. Or are they really investors?!

Who is an investor? Is he just a person who puts his money, but not his mind? Can a person who puts his mind for an investment, which is no investment at all? What is an investment? Is it about buying today, selling tomorrow? Or worse, sell today and buy tomorrow?

To me, he is just a wager, for investors have vision, a purpose. There exists a perfect harmony between their dreams desires, wants, thoughts and actions. Investors think and act, they are not influenced by what others earn or make. They are influenced by their strength and weakness. A wager simply bets and waits for things to happen. He is at the mercy of others. Others perform, wager gets paid. Others do not perform, they do not get paid. Bigger your bet, bigger the reward. After all, it is all about money, honey.

An investor does not simply end by putting his money where the crowd puts its money. He evaluates the alternatives, looks at his needs, explores the possibilities on a logical premise, harmonizes them with his available resources, then invests his money. Mind comes first, money comes next. He spends his time, before investment and also after investment. He peruses through the Annual Report properly. He stands invested through ups and downs.

Investor is one who looks long term. He is not into any quick race. He is not there for the cheap thrills. He is not the “Wham, Bam, Thank You M’am” type. He is not there for the casual fling. Investor is a level headed romantic besotted to his soul mate through ups and downs. He is not influenced by the sudden increase or equally sudden decrease. Investor does not panic. Even when he makes a bad investment, he does not cry running to the Government begging to bail him out. He will bail himself out. He has got the heads. Investors basically invest.

Wagers do not represent investors, for they are not investors. They don’t invest money. They basically lend money to the market. They are worse than usuries. Wagers are a product of gluttony. And these bastards, products of this gluttony have been glorified as Investment Guru.

When their regular stock returns were only 50% or 60%, they got bored. Greed is not about Rs.60 return on Rs.100 investment. That is not smart enough, they want a return of Rs.600 on their Rs.100 investment. That too in 3 months. So what do these louses do? Volatility is what they prefer. Extreme movements, for in that extreme movements you have opportunity. They convert a genuine hedging tool (Derivatives) into a game of poker. What does happen in a game of poker? You do not always make money. You lose sometimes. Heavily. These scumbags did not know that, sometimes, in their hyperactivity to fuck anything that moves, they might end up screwing themselves.

The entire mayhem at the stock markets of the world is a lesson to this point. As Dr. Manmohan Singh highlighted (what JM Keynes told) the single most important reason for this mayhem, “Speculation can be a speckle in the economic transactions; Economy cannot be a speckle in the Speculative Transactions.” The bottom line, anything done in the excessive, will be counter productive. An age old philosophy from the Hindu mythology. Excessive disciplining, excessive liberty, excessive independence, excessive money, uncontrolled economy – everything that is excessive will only result in mayhem.

When the Government constitutes a committee of Experts (another set of bastards) in Economics, Business Studies and Management, for studying the effect of speculative derivative trading on the prices of crude oil and commodity, the Committee after gobbling up couple of Crores over foreign visits to study (god knows what?), end up providing an answer which a third grade sucker would deem shitty. “It may have a link, or it may not have. We cannot say that with 100% certainty.”

Two Years and Twenty Crores Rupees later this kind of absolutely deplorable comment and conclusion. And they call themselves Expert Committee! Leechers. Expert at what? Sucking blood. That is when you know that these are different set of bastards, born out of a failed wedlock between an inebriated pig and parasite, both found in deep and nauseated sewerage canals.

Without any great deal of increase in demand for crude oil, the price gallops from 30 dollars to 150 dollars (part of which may be attributed to fall in value of dollar), this increase is also not for those genuine market transactions (wherein the buyer buys and seller supplies), but those cash settled derivative transactions (buyer does not buy, seller does not sell), and a good number of such derivative transactions having been entered into by Investment Companies, and others who do not certainly drink oil for water.

One need not be an Einstein to know that these price increases are not a result of genuine economic transactions. Thankfully, Einstein and Keynes are not alive. Had they, they would have called these noisy big talk by the Experts as nothing but fart, and their mouth as not that of horses, but only as fart holes.

And many of these experts are educated at the best of business schools – Harward, Wharton, Yale, IIMs et al, by what every one of us think, as the best teachers of this planet. Well, their best teacher was something else. Experience is the best teacher, my junior (a lad of barely 20) once beautifully explained. At twice his age, these scumbags do not seem to have learnt the lesson.

Having burnt their fingers, hands (and what not) mighty hard, they don’t have any money in their hands to deal with derivatives any further, they sit idle. Result, when they sit idle, everything settles down. The economy which was always in the Seventh Heaven, has atlast found its true origins. The earth. You cannot always live a life of dreams, especially when it is borrowed.

Oil is hovering around 40 Dollars now. Investment Bankers / Companies (I hate to call them Investment Companies / Bankers) which were on the fast track, now find that they have been pedaling in the open air, with no base. People who were living out of suitcases and airports, are busy cleaning their bicycle for going to claim their employment benefits.

Lessons learnt taught by this mayhem –

  1. Investor is not one who puts today, pulls tomorrow. Investor stands invested over a longer period of time. Investor buys a share not to make a profit by selling it, but make life by holding it.
  2. When you invest money, you should also invest your mind and life. You behave like an investor - you review the market, industry. You study the Annual Report, attend the General Body Meeting. You don’t invest simply because the dog next door put some money and made more than what you made in a year. By following him, you are slowly transforming into a sucker.
  3. Those who lost they money are only wagers. Investors are still investors. They made only notional gains, and therefore, only notional losses.
  4. Please don’t forget Keynes. Speculation cannot be a base to determine genuine economic transactions. Derivatives should only support the Economic system, and not decide the fate of economy (which can be guided only by Demand and Supply of tangible goods and services, that will be consumed and supplied)
  5. Experts are not experts. They are lepers. When they raise both their hands with their index and middle finger bent forward, they are not speaking within quotes  (“I quote”),but doing monkey chants practised in deep forests of the Amazon by unknown tribes. Well they are only exhibiting their basic trait, that of being a monkey.
  6. There is a link between excessive speculation and price movements in the cash market. Keynes knew it eighty years before. (This is for the team of asses popularly called Expert Committee)

Most Important Lesson:
The real investment is the work we do. That is our stock market and derivative market. There have been crorepatis in every walk of life and in every field. Bill Gates and Ambani did not become rich by investing their money in the stock market. They invested their life in the work they did. Sachin and Dhoni make money be investing their life in cricket, and not in stock market. No harm in expecting extra money. But with a want for extra money, comes extra responsibility and extra work. Life in itself is the biggest jackpot. Stop expecting more jackpots.

Stock market is only a place for investors to transact. It is not your doping zone.

Hopefully the lessons have been learnt.

Today:
A 5% dip in oil consumption brings down the might crude oil from 100 Dollars to 35 Dollars. A 1% increase in consumption, increases the crude by 10 Dollars. Where? Once again in the derivatives market.

They hope that Government will bail them out. If not, they will find a way out (or way in) once again in the very poison that killed everybody. Atleast so they hope.

Poison becoming the pill. What a hope! This beats even their greed for quick money.

Gluttony probably never dies.

Comments

Ketan said…
There's quite a bit I didn't understand, especially the term, "derivatives". Sorry for such an overdrawn comment on competition. I think you've a fairly good idea about it.

TC.

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